"Journal editors, too, can fall prey to it [hindsight bias]. Even when submitted research is novel, it is likely to be deemed obvious after reading it, and thus unpublishable (Miller & Pollock, 1994)."
Gross, Holtz, & Miller (1995). Attitude certainty, Attitude strength: Antecedents & consequences.
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3 comments:
Did he cite any examples of this effect? (Possibly a 1993 Miller & Pollock working paper?)
Seriously, I'd guess the effect on the citation process would be greater than on journal review. (Authors may not cite 'obvious' research, even when said research shaped their views, when they don't recognize that their views have been shaped.)
It's hard to say. My personal feeling is too influenced by being a grad student - I don't feel comfortable writing "People like things that they like more than things that they don't like" without a citation. (And actually, that sentence may or may not be true for various definitions of "like.")
I looked up the 1994 reference in Google Books and the bastards had the page with the study on the not available for free status. (I hate it when people cite books!)
So... does it help if you don't explain it too well, so they have to struggle to get to the "obvious" feeling? (then it's rejected for being poorly explained)
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