Quote of the Day: Arithmetic Edition

"A news story provides a vivid example of the illusion of control (and the confusion of skill and chance). One year, the winner of the Christmas drawing for the Spanish National Lottery, El Gordo, was interviewed on television. He was asked, 'How did you do it? How did you know which ticket to buy?' Our winner replied that he had searched for a vendor who could sell him a ticket ending in 48. 'Why 48?' he was asked. 'Well, I dreamed of the number seven for seven nights in a row, and since seven times seven is 48...'"

Winner's Curse, Richard Thaler, 1992, p. 138

It's always such a pleasant change to see an example of innumeracy from someone who isn't an American. (Of course, one could argue that a relatively advanced level of innumeracy is necessary for one to shun expected value calculations to such an extent as to play the lottery at all.)

I hereby award this mathematically-challenged individual, who has possibly blown through his winnings by now and is considering entering other lotteries, the following prize so that he can keep expected value considerations in mind (or at least, serve as a reminder to others):