When I got home, I put Robert on the job to figure this out.
What do you think? What percentage of days over the course of a year do the temperatures in our towns overlap? Consider, generate a guesstimate, then scroll down for the results Robert got when he analyzed weather data for the two cities from 2010 to 2014 (through mid-August). (Just to be clear, he used data for Snow City and the big metro she lives about an hour from.)
He reports:
Overall, on 46% of days, temperatures overlapped (i.e., the low temperature in Warmopolis was lower than the high temperature in Snow City). This ranged from 12% in January to 83% in July.
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| Results by Month |
When I first read it, I had trouble getting my mind around the statement "the low temperature in Warmopolis was lower than the high temperature in Snow City." This just means situations like a summer day where it's from 65 to 85 in Snow City and from 80 to 105 in Warmopolis. The low in Warmopolis (80) is lower than the high in Snow City (85).
It seems more natural to me to think of it as "the high temperature in Snow City was higher [warmer] than the low temperature in Warmopolis" but these statements are equivalent (right...right???). (All that stuff with the greedy alligators is so confusing.)
Winter has too many days with temps like: Warmopolis, 30 to 45 degrees, Snow City, -1 zillion degrees to -1 zillion degrees + 20. We only have overlap about 12% of days, but that's actually more than I would have thought. The overall number of 46% is higher than I would have thought.
How close was your guess? You did guess, right?
7 comments:
I guessed 5-10%, so I was way off. Even the worst month was higher than my high estimate. (Put that in your alligator and smoke it!)
My first guess was 50%. Then I thought about it more and changed my guess to 30%. I underestimated the summer overlap (thinking it was about 50%), was right about the winter overlap (thinking it was dang low but not zero), and was a bit mystified about spring and fall.
Interesting question--thanks, Sally. Interesting answer--thanks, Robert.
I guesses 10%, way off!
I was definitely in the Tam/Mom range and not the Debbie range of guessing. Debbie wins the cigar on this one.
Victory dance!
I asked my friend Christine to guess about this and she guessed 66%.
Tam - A surprising overestimate, but not as far off as many of us.
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